The 20-minute sprint plan
- Minutes 1-3: Cover page and share count (basic and diluted). Compare to last quarter; note any ATM or warrant language.
- Minutes 4-8: Balance sheet. Recompute NCAV and NTAV; apply haircuts from the liquidity-trap guide.
- Minutes 9-12: Cash flow statement. Check operating cash burn vs cash balance; capex spikes.
- Minutes 13-16: Footnotes on debt, convertibles, and related parties. Look for covenants, resets, and insider loans.
- Minutes 17-20: MD&A for catalysts (tenders, asset sales) and risks (going concern, customer concentration).
Red flags worth a full stop
- Sequential share count jumps without clear proceeds use.
- New convertible notes or warrants with variable pricing.
- Auditor going-concern emphasis or material weakness.
- Inventory build plus margin compression.
- Revenue with cash collection lags (AR aging worsening).
Outputs to log in your tracker
- Updated NCAV, NTAV, and cash/liabilities ratios.
- Share count changes and potential dilution overhang.
- Any dated catalysts with milestones.
- Decision: size up, hold, trim, or exit.
Internal links and tools
- Balance-sheet events: Shares outstanding changes
- Volume tell: Interesting volume events
- Price pressure: Near-lows scanner
- Sentiment: Short interest changes
- More reading: Resources hub
Compliance note
This guide is educational and not investment advice. Do your own research or consult a professional adviser.