How do I know if something is outside my circle?

If you cannot conservatively estimate value and key risks from filings and simple models, it is outside.

Can I expand my circle?

Yes—slowly, via study and small stakes; never pay full prices while learning.

What if a cheap stock is outside my circle?

Graham would say pass. Opportunity cost is lower than ignorant risk.

Circle of Competence - Stay Within What You Can Value

Only act where you can appraise value versus price; skip the rest.

Published: 2025-12-26

graham competence risk analysis

Graham's stance

"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike." - The Intelligent Investor, Ch. 20
"Know what you are doing—know your business." - The Intelligent Investor, Ch. 14

If you cannot explain how the business makes money, what can impair it, and what it is worth, you are speculating.

How to define your circle

Industries where you can model revenues, costs, and capital needs with confidence.
Balance sheets you can verify (cash quality, liabilities, off-balance items).
Risks you can name and handicap with simple scenarios.

Operating rules

Pass fast on what you cannot value.
Keep a watchlist of "learn more" names, not "buy now" names.
Expand only through deliberate study and small, tuition-sized positions.
Do not stretch because of FOMO; price is not a substitute for understanding.

Quick checklist

Can I rebuild value from filings without heroic assumptions?
Do I understand what could structurally break the business?
Do I have comparable cases to sanity-check margins and multiples?
If the price fell 30%, would I know whether to add or exit based on value?

Takeaways

Staying in your circle is risk control.
Passing is an active decision that preserves capital for knowable opportunities.
Expand slowly and intentionally; never confuse cheap with understandable.